Millie Gould
It is no secret that Donald Trump has some controversial and downright conspiratorial views on climate change, with him even going as far as to call climate change “one of the greatest scams of all time”. Despite there being a consensus amongst 97% of climate scientists that climate change is not only real but anthropogenically caused, Trump’s recent re-election for a second term signifies the return of climate denialism to the Oval Office.
As this article is published, the Climate Clock states that we have less than 4 years and 250 days to limit global warming to 1.5°C and avoid irreversible damage to the planet we share. This means that these crucial years of climate action will be dominated by Trump’s anti-climate agenda, as he leads one of the most economically and politically powerful countries, and as a result the rest of the globe, sleepwalking further into the depths of climate crisis.
The discourse surrounding the recent US presidential election has been dominated by discussions regarding immigration policy and abortion bans, whilst environmental issues have been severely side-lined. Yet, if Trump’s environmental policy during his previous term in the White House is anything to go by, climate change should be front and centre as we enter the latter half of the ‘make-or-break’ decade for our natural environment. Apart from his consistent anti-climate rhetoric, and vocal support for the fossil fuel industry, Trump was responsible for significant environmental policy rollback whilst in office between 2017 to 2021. More than 100 pieces of environmental regulations and policies were rolled back, repealed or weakened under the previous Trump administration, leading to substantial legal challenges from environmental advocacy groups and organisations. Arguably the
most infamous of these changes, of course, was his withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement.
One of Joe Biden’s first acts as President in 2021 was to reinstate the US’s membership of the Paris Climate Accord, along with the revision and strengthening of the National Environmental Policy Act. This signified a decisively pro-environmental shift from the attitudes of the previous administration. Whilst the Biden administration was not without criticism, with the US remaining rated as Insufficient on the Climate Action Tracker, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 contributed to and enabled record-breaking growth in clean energy. However, it appears likely that much of this momentum and progress will be short-lived. The Trump administration has already pledged the rapid reversal of Biden’s key climate policies, as most of these were achieved through executive authority which can be rescinded. To make matters worse, president-elect Trump has previously claimed he has every intention to pull out of the Paris Agreement for a second time, despite the increasing occurrences of climate disasters around the globe intensifying the need for climate finance. Such an act would “cripple” the agreement, according to the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, potentially also encouraging other countries to follow suit. Furthermore, such potential could discourage other wealthy countries from contributing to the global fund for climate aid during the COP29 negotiations currently occurring within Azerbaijan, despite a Biden Administration delegate being in attendance.
Climate scientists have argued that a second term of Trump in office will likely mean maintaining temperatures at less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will be unachievable. It is not just scientists who are rallying together against Trump’s reckless approach to climate governance - even Darren Woods, the CEO of Exxon Mobil, the USA’s largest oil and gas company, has publicly urged Trump not to pull out of the Paris Agreement for a second time.
Despite widespread warnings, it is improbable that climate action will be championed substantially at all within the US federal government under Trump unless there is significant resistance from within his own party. This is due to the Republican Party having gained a ‘governing trifecta’, in which the president's party also has control over both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Such a situation sets a dismal tone for the latter half of this crucial decade. If the US does not lead by example, as the world’s most dominant economic power, it is unlikely that other countries will be willing to raise the stakes with their own ambitious climate action agendas.
That being said, all hope is not lost. Despite Trump having vowed to reverse much of the climate change policy implemented under the Biden administration, it is unlikely that this progress will be completely undermined. For example, the IRA has sent a clear signal to the market that further long-term decarbonisation efforts are to come as America continues to build a low-carbon economy. Similarly, subnational actions such as cities, states and businesses may be emboldened to take on leading roles in the fight against climate change, as they did under the first Trump administration through campaigns such as the America Is All In pledge. These initiatives have only become stronger since 2017, demonstrating the powerful movement towards clean energy from bottom-up leadership organisations.
Thus, whilst the climate agenda may have to fight an uphill battle within the US under Trump’s second term, there is significant momentum and grass-roots public support indicating that clean energy will continue to grow rapidly. Sub-national organisations have a unique opportunity to demonstrate just how much support there is for the US to take the lead in climate action, even if the Trump administration is not on board.
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