Jakub Fegyveres
The 29th iteration of the annual Conference of Parties (COP), is taking place over two weeks, beginning on the 11th of November in Baku, Azerbaijan. Tens of thousands of delegates, NGO representatives, and lobbyists will descend on the city for a fortnight, during which the existential issue of climate change tends to be most politically salient. Its pivotal role in negotiating the requisite worldwide response, coupled with a failure to arrive at sufficiently ambitious targets thus far, warrants fundamental questions regarding the conference’s efficacy.
Climate change is the largest continuous threat humanity faces. Its size inherently necessitates wide-spread action, especially from nation states with the policymaking and legislative capabilities to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and promote sustainable industries. Serving as a regular formal meeting of the signatories of the 1995 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the COP brings together the framework’s 198 signatory Parties. It represents a global forum which allows for sufficiently impactful climate deals to be negotiated and signed.
It is no surprise that COP’s importance has been reflected in the agreements that have been negotiated under its auspices thus far. For instance, COP3 saw the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, which sought to limit GHG emissions by 5% between 2008 and 2012, judged against 1990 levels. More recently, at COP21, the Paris Agreement was signed, legally committing states to a goal of limiting global warming at 1.5°C, while seeing GHG emissions peak before 2025 and decline at least 43% by 2030.
Significantly, a major (and unique) selling point of these deals is the universality with which they were adopted, as all official COP deals are agreed by consensus. The conferences also provide ample opportunity for side-deals to be made between a smaller number of parties, as COP28 demonstrated. This progress naturally contributes to media cycles, which can elicit the impression that climate change is being managed with relative success.
As things stand, this is not the case. In its recent Emissions Gap Report, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) found that, if we continue along our current trajectory, temperatures will rise by 3.1°C over the course of this century. The UNEP’s second prognosis is even more dire. They report that, even if all states were to meet their climate promises, presented to COP every five years in the form of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global temperatures would still rise by a catastrophic 2.6°C. Similarly, the 2023 Global Stocktake, conducted by UN institutions to measure progress towards the Paris Agreement goals, starkly warned that “much more is needed on all fronts.”
It is obvious, therefore, that there has been a lack of successful implementation and sufficient ambition. As a major institution designed to promote ambition and facilitate widespread action, it is clear that COP has failed to produce sufficiently impactful policy agreements to rise to the challenge thus far.
The sheer number of lobbyists that attend the conference, for whom it proves a major access point to policymakers, point to why this is the case. COP28 saw a record 2,456 lobbyists, but the phenomenon is hardly a new one. Since the COP9 in 2003, it is estimated that a total of at least 6,581 lobbyists from the fossil fuel industry have been in attendance. Alarmingly, lobbyists are also routinely accredited as members of national delegations, giving them even clearer means of influence over negotiations and, ultimately, policy. It is unsurprising, therefore, that 112 organisations have called on the EU’s climate Commissioner to ban fossil fuel lobbyists from EU delegations, for instance.
Relatedly, the hosting of the conference in petrostates such as the UAE (COP28) and Azerbaijan can serve to undermine COP’s legitimacy, as well as stunting its ambition. The ties of high-level personnel provided by these host countries also tend to raise eyebrows. The President of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, was simultaneously CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, famously exploiting the talks to further his business interests. This year’s President, Mukhtar Babayev, has also been described as a “veteran” of the oil industry. These facts suggest unavoidable conflicts of interest on both the national and individual level, with ultimately damaging effects. Looking ahead, COP30 is set to take place in Brazil, another major oil exporter.
The conference also has a diversity problem. During preparations for this year’s conference, this issue was brought centre-stage, as a result of Azerbaijan’s presentation of an all-male 28-member organising committee. Although this was quickly rectified, there are systemic inequities, leading to ongoing underrepresentation, that cannot be solved as quickly. While it is worth noting that these issues have been somewhat addressed recently, much wider social change is necessary to make future COPs truly representative.
On a more hopeful note, a new round of the important NDCs is due to be presented as soon as next year, in advance of COP30. These have the potential to chart a more ambitious and sustainable course. The UN also strengthened its rules on COP lobbyists last year, requiring a more rigorous registration process, although their presence in national delegations still requires addressing.
Lastly, and significantly, it seems like the need for more ambitious policies is being prioritised by this conference’s organisers. In fact, COP29’s President, Mukhtar Babayev, has outlined his vision of the conference’s pillars to be “to enhance ambition and enable action.” It remains to be seen whether his words will be lived up to.
References
United Nations, 10/09/2021, "United Nations Press Release," https://press.un.org/en/2021/sc14445.doc.htm
University of Cambridge, Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, n.d., "Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership," https://www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/cop-climate-change-conference#:~
UNFCCC, 11/12/1997, "Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change," https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf
UNFCCC, n.d., "The Paris Agreement," https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement
Cipher, n.d., "Top Takeaways from Historic COP28 Deal on Fossil Fuels," https://www.ciphernews.com/articles/top-takeaways-from-historic-cop28-deal-on-fossil-fuels/
UNEP, 2024, "Emissions Gap Report 2024," https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024
London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, n.d., "What Is the Global Stocktake," https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-is-the-global-stocktake/
Amnesty International, 01/12/2023, "Global Record Number of Fossil Fuel Lobbyists at COP Undermines Critical Climate Talks," https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/12/global-record-number-of-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-at-cop-undermines-critical-climate-talks/
Corporate Europe Observatory, 11/11/2023, "Fossil Fuel Lobbyists Attend UN Climate Talks More Than 7,000 Times," https://corporateeurope.org/en/2023/11/fossil-fuel-lobbyists-attend-un-climate-talks-more-7000-times
Global Witness, 14/11/2023, "Over 100% More Fossil Fuel Lobbyists Last Year Flooding Crucial COP Climate Talks," https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/over-100-more-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-last-year-flooding-crucial-cop-climate-talks/
Transparency International, 13/11/2023, "112 Organisations Call on EU Climate Commissioner to Ban Fossil Fuel Lobbyists from EU Delegations at COP29," https://transparency.eu/112-organisations-call-on-eu-climate-commissioner-to-ban-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-from-eu-delegations-at-cop29/
Global Witness, 20/11/2023, "New Investigation Reveals How COP28 President Used Role to Pursue Oil and Gas Deals," https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/new-investigation-reveals-how-cop28-president-used-role-pursue-oil-and-gas-deals/
The Guardian, 05/01/2024, "COP29 Will Be Led by Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan Ecology Minister Who Is Oil Industry Veteran," https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/05/cop29-will-be-led-by-mukhtar-babayev-azerbaijan-ecology-minister-who-is-oil-industry-veteran
COP29, n.d., "Letter to Parties and Constituencies," https://cop29.az/en/media-hub/news/letter-to-parties-and-constituencies
The Guardian, 15/06/2023, "Fossil Fuel Lobbyists Will Have to Identify Themselves When Registering for COP28," https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/15/fossil-fuel-lobbyists-will-have-to-identify-themselves-when-registering-for-cop28
Future of Food, n.d., "Creating a More Equitable COP: The Barriers Facing Civil Society and Global South Presence," https://futureoffood.org/insights/creating-a-more-equitable-cop-the-barriers-facing-civil-society-and-global-south-presence/
Gowling WLG, 2024, "What Is COP29 Focused on and What Do Businesses Need to Know," https://gowlingwlg.com/en/insights-resources/articles/2024/what-is-cop29-focused-on-and-what-do-businesses-need-to-know
The Guardian, 19/01/2024, "Women COP29 Climate Summit Committee Backlash," https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/19/women-cop29-climate-summit-committee-backlash
International Energy Agency, n.d., "Brazil Oil Profile," https://www.iea.org/countries/brazil/oil
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